Updating Probabilities: An Econometric Example∗

نویسنده

  • Adom Giffin
چکیده

We demonstrate how information in the form of observable data and moment constraints are introduced into the method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME). A general example of updating with data and moments is shown. A specific econometric example is solved in detail which can then be used as a template for real world problems. A numerical example is compared to a large deviation solution which illustrates some of the advantages of the ME method.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

From Physics to Economics: An Econometric Example Using Maximum Relative Entropy

Econophysics, is based on the premise that some ideas and methods from physics can be applied to economic situations. We intend to show in this paper how a physics concept such as entropy can be applied to an economic problem. In so doing, we demonstrate how information in the form of observable data and moment constraints are introduced into the method of Maximum relative Entropy (MrE). A gene...

متن کامل

Updating beliefs with incomplete observations

Currently, there is renewed interest in the problem, raised by Shafer in 1985, of updating probabilities when observations are incomplete (or set-valued). This is a fundamental problem in general, and of particular interest for Bayesian networks. Recently, Grünwald and Halpern have shown that commonly used updating strategies fail in this case, except under very special assumptions. In this pap...

متن کامل

Updating Probabilities with Data and Moments

We use the method of Maximum (relative) Entropy to process information in the form of observed data and moment constraints. The generic “canonical” form of the posterior distribution for the problem of simultaneous updating with data and moments is obtained. We discuss the general problem of non-commuting constraints, when they should be processed sequentially and when simultaneously. As an ill...

متن کامل

A Continuous Updating Rule for Imprecise Probabilities

The paper studies the continuity of rules for updating imprecise probability models when new data are observed. Discontinuities can lead to robustness issues: this is the case for the usual updating rules of the theory of imprecise probabilities. An alternative, continuous updating rule is introduced.

متن کامل

Belief Network Algorithms: A Study of Performance

Belief Updating Algorithms There are several algorithms for exact belief updating, for example, the polytree algorithm, clustering (Pearl 1988) or the Jensen tree method (Jensen, Lauritzen, & Olesen 1989). However, approximate methods are often preferred because the complexity of exact updating is NP-hard. Approximate updating is usually done by stochastic simulation (Pearl 1988). Variants incl...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2008